The six movements share founders, donors, forums and a great deal of vocabulary, and Timnit Gebru and Γmile P. Torres have argued in The TESCREAL bundle (2024) that they belong together as one ideology, which they name after transhumanism, extropianism, singularitarianism, cosmism, rationalism, effective altruism and longtermism. I treat each of them as a quasi-religion with its scriptures, its prophets and its picture of how the world ends. Under each are the end-time traditions it recapitulates, the fiction that prefigured it or warned against it and the movements it opposes or is opposed by, taken from the relations in the matrix, strongest first with the weight beside each, and then a few places to read more.
Effective Altruism
Oxford, from 2009 Β· Toby Ord, William MacAskill, Peter Singer
Effective altruism began in Oxford in 2009, when Toby Ord and William MacAskill founded Giving What We Can
and asked its members to pledge a tenth of their income for the rest of their working lives to the charities
that did the most measurable good, an argument Peter Singer had made in 1972 in ‘Famine, Affluence, and
Morality’. The pledge is a tithe in everything but name. Over the following decade the movement ranked
causes by expected value and moved a growing share of its money from malaria nets toward the far future and the
risks of artificial intelligence, and the collapse of FTX in 2022, whose founder Sam Bankman-Fried had been its
most famous donor, is the case most critics of wealth laundered as altruism now cite.
- recapitulates
- Jewish Messianic Age4, Millenarianism3, Islamic Day of Judgement2
- warned against by
- Brave New World (1932)4
- opposed by
- Effective Accelerationism5
Read more
Longtermism
Oxford, from 2017 Β· Nick Bostrom, Toby Ord, William MacAskill
Longtermism is the view, named by MacAskill and his Oxford colleagues around 2017, that the people who could
live in the far future so outnumber the living that protecting their chance to exist is a key moral priority of
our time. Its arithmetic goes back to Nick Bostrom’s 2003 paper ‘Astronomical Waste’, which
put the cost of delaying the settlement of our local supercluster at more than ten trillion potential lives for
every second, on his most cautious estimate, and its popular statement is MacAskill’s What We Owe the
Future (2022). I read it as an eschatology worked out as a sum, and the critiques in the corpus give it more
warnings at the full weight of 5 than any other movement.
- recapitulates
- Secular Progress Eschatology5, Jewish Messianic Age4, Marxist Eschatology4, Christian Parousia3
- prefigured by
- Foundation (1951)5
- warned against by
- Dune (1965)5, Foundation (1951)3
- opposed by
- Effective Accelerationism4
Read more
Singularitarianism
From 1993 Β· Vernor Vinge, Ray Kurzweil
Singularitarians expect a moment when machines surpass human intelligence and the human era, in Vernor
Vinge’s phrase from his 1993 essay, is ended, which Vinge put within thirty years. Ray Kurzweil gave the
belief its law of accelerating returns in 2001 and its date, 2045, in The Singularity Is Near (2005).
It has the form of a rapture, an imminent event that makes all the history before it provisional, awaited by
people who read exponential curves as others have read the signs of the end, and of the six movements it draws
the most warnings from fiction, from Frankenstein in 1818 to Ex Machina in 2014.
- recapitulates
- Christian Parousia5, Secular Progress Eschatology4, Norse Ragnarok3, Gnostic Transcendence3
- prefigured by
- 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)4, Neuromancer (1984)4, Her (2013)4
- warned against by
- The Terminator (1984)5, R.U.R. (1920)4, 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)4, Colossus (1966/1970)4 and 5 more
Read more
Transhumanism
From 1957 Β· Julian Huxley, Nick Bostrom, David Pearce
Julian Huxley gave the word its modern sense in 1957, for a species that could transcend itself through
science, and the World Transhumanist Association, which Nick Bostrom and David Pearce founded in 1998 and which
is now Humanity+, published the Transhumanist Declaration. Its programme treats ageing and death as engineering
problems, to be solved by life extension, cryonics, cognitive enhancement and in the end by uploading a mind out
of the body altogether. That last hope ties it most strongly to the Gnostics, for whom the body was a prison and
salvation an escape from matter, and it is why Frankenstein, a novel about making life from dead
matter, is set against it at the full weight of 5.
- recapitulates
- Gnostic Transcendence5, Christian Parousia4, Secular Progress Eschatology2
- prefigured by
- Blade Runner (1968/1982)4, Ghost in the Shell (1989/1995)4, R.U.R. (1920)3, 2001: A Space Odyssey (1968)3 and 1 more
- warned against by
- Frankenstein (1818)5, Evangelion (1995)4, Brave New World (1932)3, Westworld (2016)3 and 1 more
Read more
Effective Accelerationism
Online, from 2022 Β· Guillaume Verdon (βBeff Jezosβ), Marc Andreessen
Effective accelerationism, e/acc for short, began in a pseudonymous Substack post in October 2022 and holds
that technological and economic growth is the direction the universe is already moving in and should be sped up
as far as it will go. It took shape as a rebuke to the effective altruists’ fear of artificial
intelligence, which is why the matrix has it opposing effective altruism, longtermism and rationalism, and Marc
Andreessen’s ‘Techno-Optimist Manifesto’ of October 2023, with its list of patron saints and
its section headed ‘The Enemy’, gave it something close to a creed. Among the end-time traditions it
sits closest to the Marxist and progress eschatologies, in which the end of history is settled in advance.
- recapitulates
- Marxist Eschatology4, Secular Progress Eschatology4, Gnostic Transcendence3, Millenarianism3
- prefigured by
- Neuromancer (1984)4, Snow Crash (1992)3
- warned against by
- Black Mirror (2011β)4, Metropolis (1927)3, Ex Machina (2014)3
- opposes
- Effective Altruism5, Longtermism4, LessWrong Rationalism4
Read more
LessWrong Rationalism
From 2009 Β· Eliezer Yudkowsky, Robin Hanson
LessWrong is the forum Eliezer Yudkowsky founded in 2009 out of the group blog Overcoming Bias, and the
rationalist community that formed around it treats Bayesian probability as a discipline for everyday thought
and the Sequences, the essays Yudkowsky wrote between 2006 and 2009 and later collected as Rationality: From
AI to Zombies, as its founding texts. Effective altruism grew up alongside it and took over much of its
method and its alarm about artificial intelligence. The corpus sets epistemic monoculture, the habit of diagnosing
disagreement as a failure of reasoning, against it at the full weight of 5, and Devs (2020) as well, a
series in which a tech company’s quantum computer shows every moment already fixed.
- recapitulates
- Buddhist Mappo3, Islamic Day of Judgement3, Gnostic Transcendence2, Secular Progress Eschatology2
- prefigured by
- The Matrix (1999)5, Foundation (1951)3, Snow Crash (1992)3
- warned against by
- Devs (2020)5, Solaris (1961)3
- opposed by
- Effective Accelerationism4
Read more